more cats need to die (i calculated how many)
what’s my ideal death rate for each series?
well, we should be killing 1.3 leaders (12 lifes) in each clan with a pov character per series. that means two to three new leaders. we see bluestar and firestar in series one, and that feels right. none of this mistystar, firestar, onestar nonsense.
leaders should have, on average, 3 deputies. they don’t all have to die, but at least one of them should.
elders can die as they please, but they shouldn’t make up more than 25% of the clan or the ratios just get really, really weird.
now, if the average litter size is four kits (which i know sounds low, but that’s just because pov litters tend to be smaller, and this is about ratios anyway): one or two die as kits, one dies as an apprentice, and one or two make it to warrior.
yay! 25% survival rate.
however, keep in mind that these ratios cut across litters. so really, it’s more like, out of every four litters: one or two wiped out from illness as kits, about half of all apprentices die, and the rest become warriors.
why so many apprentice deaths? uh, fuck, i dunno, maybe because apprentices die a lot! and that’s why we have too many warriors in thunderclan
holy shit y'all, sweetpaw died from eating a bad mouse these cats will die at a drop of a hat in the first series.
now, what about warriors? well, okay, if, let’s say one litter is born every season, then we have an average of one to two new warriors per season. now, this actually solves warrior over population problems pretty effectively.
warriors actually are fairly hardy. that said, only about, oh, let’s say somewhere between 10% and 33% of warriors make it to becoming elders. that feels right.
that means, on average, a new elder retires every 2 to 7 seasons, or, very roughly, one per year.
alright, so where does that put our populations at? uh, okay, i’m actually pretty bad at this kind of math, and i’m doing all back of the envelop calculations, but if we pretend the nursery provides litters all on its own, (just to remove a factor for my ease), we have:
K A W 1 LB 4 0 0 1 NL 8 0 0 1 GL 8 2 0 1 LF 8 4 0 2 LB 8 4 1 2 NL 8 4 3 2 GL 8 4 4 2 LF 8 4 6
and so on. if that looks weird to you, try to view my blog on a browser. i know it’s a pain, but tumblr doesn’t support useful functionality like tables any other way.
now, how long do warriors stay warriors? i think a good estimation will be 10 years, although i definitely think that’s on the low end. at ten years, we have a total of 60 warriors, if none die. if we want 10-30% of them to become warriors, that means 40-54 of them are going to die.
over the course of ten years, that’s about 4 per year. okay, great, we lose a warrior every season. fixing the chart, we now have:
K A W 1 LB 4 0 0 1 NL 8 0 0 1 GL 8 2 0 1 LF 8 4 0 2 LB 8 4 1 2 NL 8 4 2 2 GL 8 4 2 2 LF 8 4 3
which, well, seems about right. net gain a warrior every other season.
okay, play that out for ten years, and we get to year 10 with 20 warriors. not bad! any remaining deaths/vanishing warriors are accounted for in the following:
some of them are becoming medicine cats
some of them are becoming deputies and leaders
some wiggle room for tragedies, clan shenanigins, and betrayals
and lastly, as for medicine cats, we aren’t going to necessarily lose that many. their deaths are not on any time table. it happens when it’s relevant to the plot that it happens.
you know, i might have to explore this some more.